CHAPTER EIGHT
SUMMARY, IMPLICATIONS, AND CONCLUSIONS
Summary
In this dissertation I have presented the literature on image theory in order to show the importance of images to foreign policy. This study provides insight into the images held by policy makers and how images affect policy decisions. By viewing how policy makers respond to a rogue state, a greater understanding of image theory and how policy makers make decisions occurs. Important for the future, the development of image theory is an attempt to predict policy decisions of policy makers and could lead to points of positive remediation.
The literature on image theory left open the development of the rogue state. By viewing the transition from the dependent of the enemy to the rogue state, why such states act against international norms appears. Rogue states, once covered under the deterrent capabilities of their parent state, seek to obtain deterrent capabilities no longer offered by the enemy. Such acts often threaten the security of neighboring states. In the case of Iraq, a state in control of vast amounts of oil and located near other oil producing states, moves to obtain desired deterrent capabilities was perceived as a threat to the entire world. Yet, Iraq sought it own security, having lived under British and French rule, as well as the Ottoman Empire, for centuries. First through the acquisition of military and economic aid that aligning with the enemy provided, and then on its own, Iraq sought deterrent capabilities. The research data supported the change in perception of Iraq from that of a dependent of the enemy to a rogue state, a perception that only increased over time.
For North Korea, a more regionally based threat emerges, although continued missile development and the exportation of weapons increased the direct threat of this state toward the U.S. North Korea, first invaded and controlled by the Chinese, then colonized by the Japanese, and finally occupied and divided by the Soviets and Americans, felt that it must attain its own independence and self-reliability. Thus, North Korea sought deterrent capabilities. The U.S. stands as a threat as it continues its presence in the region; yet, the U.S. won’t leave until North Korea ceases its actions that threaten American allies and satellites. The research supported a perceived change in image from the dependent of the enemy image to that of a rogue state image.
Yet, not all states perceived in the rogue state category incur the same policy responses. This is where this study adds to the theory by suggesting that rogue states can be placed on a spectrum, resulting in different policy preferences based on the placement. Iraq, the prototypical rogue state image, demanded retributive actions to beat it into shape. Very little in the way of real diplomacy occurred; rather, policy makers demanded compliance or Iraq would face harsh action, and followed through when Iraq failed to adhere to demands. For Iraq, deterrence failed. On the other hand, give and take diplomacy occurred with North Korea, with benefits offered in exchange for compliance. The opportunity for North Korea to enter into the world community continued over time as patience, with the threat of retributive actions, produced movement towards North Korea acceptance of international norms. Thus, retributive policy preferences developed from the perceived rogue state image of Iraq, while North Korea incurred less restrictive policies that included rehabilitation efforts. North Korea successfully deterred the U.S. from attacking and forcing compliance.
Implications
Currently, rogue states are at the forefront of threats to U.S. security. An understanding of the cognitive processes decision makers employ make it easier to determine what choices policy makers prefer when responding to rogue states. The recent events in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Libya, and North Korea emphasize the importance of the rogue state image in policy making. The greater the understanding of how images affect decision making, the greater the predictive power of image theory. Ultimately, an understanding of image theory will lead to a greater understanding of policy makers and how they make decisions. Hopefully, insight into policy makers’ perceptions of other states will offer points of access for overcoming misperception and less than perfect policy making.
Suggestions For Future Research
Ideally, the ability to conduct research in both Iraq and North Korea in order to develop the images held by these states would enlighten us as to their perspectives on policy decisions. Having both sides of a conflict included in a discussion on deterrence and the psychological influences therein benefits research (Jervis, 1985). Furthermore, including other former dependent or colonial states and their transition into other categories, both from the U.S. foreign policy perspective and from the countering view of these states, would provide additional information on access points for overcoming misperception and gaining greater opportunities for positive policy outcomes.
Throughout this study, the effect of emotions on image perception appears. The inclusion of affect to the study of images takes shape in Cottam and Cottam (2000) but is only included as a possible explanation of the strength of connection to an image in this research. The study of how emotions color perception may provide interesting answers to unanswered questions of why certain actions take place. Strong emotions play a role in the level of adherence to a perceived image as well as to the degree of change from one image category to another. Exploring the powers of emotion on perception will again offer points of access for overcoming misperception, leading to better policy making. Finally, the interaction between personality, operational code, and image perception offers a dynamic view of policy makers’ psychologies and the decisions they make. An interactive research program, either researched separately and then fit together, or undertaken as a single effort, may offer a leap towards that Grand Theory desired by political theorists.
Conclusion: The Future World (Without WMD?)
While image theory relied on a realist view of international relations in the past, idealist views of human nature may prevail in the future. An idealist take on image theory presents new ways of viewing power relationships, centering on a world community led by the United Nations. From this perspective, images of other states take on new meaning, better representing the future relationships between states, with the rise of terrorism as the main security threat. Since nuclear weapons fail to deter terrorists who rely on innovative means of violence (planes, snipers, suitcase bombs, etc.), a reduction of nuclear weapons and WMD becomes possible. From a truly international perspective, the enemy disappears and a unification of world powers develops. The rogue state becomes the main state level threat, a placement supported by recent events. Yet, policies towards rogue states must employ a united effort by the international community centering on the motive behind WMD development: deterrence. If states feel threatened by other states based on the development of military capability or a perceived intention to dominate and control, that is where international policy should focus. The dis-ease will continue if only the symptoms find redress.
Eastern philosophy considers both the external view of the world and the internal view of the self. Western international efforts often only consider what’s going on “out there.” When viewing only the international system, a jungle appears, based on the greedy, power-hungry interests of “states.” Policy makers view the environment only and the interactions within it. When a view of the self enters the equation, better understanding of the interrelationship of life and its environment occurs. What’s “out there” reflects the internal self and how the self contributes and adds to the environment. If the world is a jungle full of greedy, self-interested amorphous states, then that reflects our own inner turmoil. Only by first seeking to change the self, does the environment change. Thus, if we seek to change the world into a peaceful planet of coexisting populations, an internal reflection, both on one’s state and individual self, must first occur. If the U.S. desires a world without the threat of nuclear weapons and other WMD, of terrorists and those wishing to do this country harm, then people within the U.S. must first act to eliminate the destructive forces within our own state and the exportation of such forces first. To call others who produce and trade arms evil, yet partake in that activity ourselves, is simply hypocritical and evil to a larger extent. To call those monsters who seek comparative deterrence based on the threat produced by U.S. nuclear capability, only points out the monster within ourselves. To continue to develop tactical nuclear weapons, increasing the likelihood of their use in theatre based conflict, undermines international efforts towards world peace and is truly evil.
From the inception of the U.S., there was a desire to secure liberty and freedom for the people, yet leaders always limited who could have freedom and liberty and supported these limitations with academic, political and cultural tools. Over time, marginalized voices pushed the conception of freedom, liberty and equality to become more inclusive. This becoming is not yet complete. The inclusiveness of those who deserve or qualify for freedom, liberty and equality, and what these terms mean, must undergo another paradigm shift to encompass not only the world community but an understanding based on the resulting disparate views. True liberty, freedom and equality will include the freedom and liberty not to exist in a world threatened by annihilation, the freedom and liberty to exist in peace, with an equal opportunity to seek happiness.