THE CONTINUITY OF IMAGES FROM TH

THE CONTINUITY OF IMAGES FROM THE DEPENDENT OF THE ENEMY TO

THE ROGUE STATE: IRAQ AND NORTH KOREA’S ACQUISITION

OF DETERRENCE CAPABILITIES

JOCELYN MARY PARKHURST

A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of

the requirements for the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY

Department of Political Science

MAY 2004

To the Faculty of Washington State University:

The members of the Committee appointed to examine the dissertation of JOCELYN MARY PARKHURST find it satisfactory and recommend that it be accepted.

____________________________________

Chair

____________________________________

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Many people assisted in making this dissertation possible. I would like to thank Martha Cottom for her expertise, knowledge, and understanding. Through her mentoring, I grew both academically and personally and gained tremendous benefit. Robert Jackson’s attention to detail and advice on style, clarity, and methodology made this work so much more than its original version. Thomas Preston and Andrew Appleton provided years of guidance and thoughtful analysis, enhancing my understanding of the world and the interactions within it. Diane Berger has been my ever present angel, guiding me through the ins and outs of the academic bureaucracy and providing a shoulder to cry on. Along with her, Cynthia, who provided the first opportunity for me to show my worth to the department, and Lisa, ever helpful to my needs, helped me move forward in my graduate studies. I could never have completed this project without my cheering section. My parents offered spiritual, financial and activist support that constantly spurned me on to action. My good friends John, Karen, and Dariel constantly offered support, encouraging me to get at the computer, do the coding, and get the writing done. My Gakkai compatriots, especially Kathy, Yoshi and Hiromi, ever encouraged me, enjoying my every step and as excited as myself when I finally completed the work. My appreciation must also include my children—Phil and Heather from afar, whose instant messaging and smiley faces pushed me farther and gave me the lift to focus and achieve this accomplishment, and AJ and Danielle at home, whose constant presence and patience made me realize what is really important and to seek to realize their dreams as well as my own. Finally, with great appreciation, I would like to acknowledge my spiritual mentor, Daisaku Ikeda, whose hope for a future global world of peace rests in my heart and urges me forward each day.

THE CONTINUITY OF IMAGES FROM THE DEPENDENT OF THE ENEMY TO

THE ROGUE STATE: IRAQ AND NORTH KOREA’S ACQUISITION

OF DETERRENCE CAPABILITIES

Abstract

By Jocelyn Mary Parkhurst, Ph.D.

Washington State University

May 2004

Chair: Martha Cottam

International relations theories often focus on the relationship between power and states’ interests. The capabilities of a state reflect its level of power. When a state seeks to achieve a policy goal based on its security interests, the state considers the power relationship between itself and the other state, often in terms of military and economic capability. Power may take on different forms in the twenty-first century, and the motivation behind any action becomes meaningful at the individual or group level. This study seeks to enter into the mind of the policy maker, determine whether the rogue state image is held by policy makers, and their responses to rogues in a crisis situation. It is an attempt to determine why policy makers promote the policy preferences they do. How policy makers perceive the transition of a state from that of a dependent of the enemy to that of a rogue, and the best policy preferences given the situation, holds more importance than what an objective observer may view as the “true” situation and the “right” policy. What policy makers perceive is their truth, and their policies reflect this perception. By considering the similarities and differences in the perceptions and policy preferences of policy makers towards Iraq and North Korea over time, an understanding develops of how perceptions influence policy making, providing points of access for increasing successful policy outcomes. This study uncovers the perceived images of Iraq and North Korea during the Cold War, at the beginning of the 1990s, and once again near the end of the ‘90s, and the subsequent policy preferences held by policy makers for these two states. The dependent of the enemy image pervaded policy makers’ perceptions of both Iraq and North Korea during the Cold War, the rogue state image emerged in the 1990s, while a difference in degree of image existed in the minds of some policy makers between Iraq and North Korea, all of which appeared to influence policy makers’ policy preferences.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................................................................................................. iii

ABSTRACT......................................................................................................................... iv

LIST OF FIGURES............................................................................................................. xii

CHAPTER

1. INTRODUCTION: POWER, DETERRENCE AND IMAGES.......................... 1

The Puzzle and Its Pieces............................................................................... 1

Power........................................................................................................... 3

Deterrence.................................................................................................... 8

Images........................................................................................................ 10

Dissertation Outline...................................................................................... 14

2. POLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY: PERSONALITY, BELIEFS,

AND IMAGES................................................................................................. 18

The Development of Cognitive Research...................................................... 18

Personality................................................................................................... 19

Operational Code........................................................................................ 27

Image Theory.............................................................................................. 33

The Development of Image Theory.................................................. 36

Context........................................................................................... 45

New Developments in Image Theory................................................ 47

The Dependent of the Enemy Image................................................. 53

The Rogue State Image.................................................................... 54

A New Image?................................................................................ 56

3. RESEARCH PRODEDURES............................................................................ 58

Theoretical Considerations........................................................................... 58

Supporting Qualitative Research....................................................... 58

Methodological Questions................................................................ 59

Pros and Cons................................................................................. 62

Looking Forward............................................................................ 65

Methodology............................................................................................... 66

Choosing Iraq and North Korea...................................................... 66

Research Problem........................................................................... 67

Hypotheses..................................................................................... 68

Independent Variable....................................................................... 69

Dependent of the Enemy Vs. Rogue State........................................ 73

Dependent Variable......................................................................... 75

Sample Collection............................................................................ 77

Data Collection................................................................................ 79

Forms of Data................................................................................. 80

Use of Content Analysis................................................................... 82

Coding Unit of Analysis................................................................... 83

Measurement Instruments................................................................ 84

4. IRAQ AND NORTH KOREA: HISTORICAL BACKGROUND.................... 87

Iraq............................................................................................................. 87

Mesopotamia.................................................................................. 87

The Development of Arabism........................................................... 88

The Ottoman Empire....................................................................... 91

1958 to 1968.................................................................................. 94

1968 to 1972.................................................................................. 96

1972 to 1975.................................................................................. 97

1975 to 1980.................................................................................. 99

1980 to 1990................................................................................ 100

1990 to 2000................................................................................ 105

Saddam Hussein............................................................................ 108

Question From the Literature......................................................... 111

North Korea............................................................................................. 111

Ancient Korea............................................................................... 111

Modern Korea: 1910 to 1945...................................................... 113

1945 to 1950................................................................................ 114

1950 to 1953................................................................................ 116

1953 to 1960................................................................................ 117

1960 to 1980................................................................................ 119

1980 to 1994................................................................................ 122

1994 to Present............................................................................. 125

Kim Il Sung................................................................................... 131

Kim Jong Il.................................................................................... 132

The Threat of North Korea............................................................ 133

Questions from the Literature......................................................... 134

5. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS: IRAQ............................................................. 136

Introduction............................................................................................... 136

The Dependent of the Enemy Image Development, 1969 to 1973............... 136

Policy Preferences and the Arab-Israeli War, 1973 to 1974....................... 147

The Emerging Rogue State Image, 1989 to 1990........................................ 159

Policy Preferences of the First Gulf War, 1990 to 1991.............................. 167

Developing the Prototypical Rogue State Image, 1997 to 1998................... 176

Policy Preferences for Desert Fox Operations, December 1998................. 187

Conclusion................................................................................................ 192

6. RESUTLS AND ANALYSIS: NORTH KOREA.......................................... 194

Introduction............................................................................................... 194

The Dependent of the Enemy Image Development, 1965 to 1968............... 194

Policy Preferences to the USS Pueblo Incident, 1968................................ 199

The Emerging Rogue State Image, 1992 to 1993........................................ 208

Policy Preferences for the North Korean Nuclear Crisis, 1993 to 1994...... 219

Determining the Image: Rogue or Not So Rogue, 1997 to 1998................. 229

Policy Preferences During the North Korean Missile Crisis, 1998

To 2000.................................................................................................... 239

Conclusion................................................................................................ 248

7. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS........................................................................ 250

Support for the Hypotheses....................................................................... 250

From the Dependent of the Enemy to the Rogue State Image.......... 250

Strengthening the Rogue State Image.............................................. 256

Retributive Versus Rehabilitative Measures for a Rogue State......... 261

8. SUMMARY, IMPLICATIONS, AND CONCLUSIONS.............................. 264

Summary................................................................................................... 264

Implications............................................................................................... 265

Suggestions for Future Research................................................................ 266

Conclusion: The Future World (Without WMD?)...................................... 267

BIBLIOGRAPHY............................................................................................................. 270

RESEARCH DOCUMENTS............................................................................................ 288

APPENDIX...................................................................................................................... 359

A. MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENT A............................................................ 360

B. MEASUREMENT INSTRUMENT B............................................................ 363

C. POLICY MAKERS: RANK & PARTY AFFILITATION............................. 364

LIST OF FIGURES

1. Operational Code: Beliefs on Conflict and its Sources..................................................... 31

2. Image Indicators............................................................................................................. 69

3. Identifying the Differences in the Dependent of the Enemy and Rogue Images................... 75

4. Image Influences Policy Preferences................................................................................ 76

Dedication

This dissertation is dedicated to all our children of the world

to whom we give the future; it is our choice as to what will be that future.